Financial Overview
At the retail level, according to an informal survey, black walnut generally
sells for about two to three times the price of oak and maple.
At the wholesale level, it's not unusual for large black walnut trees that are
relatively free of defects to fetch $20,000 to $35,000 per tree. In 1985, a
single black walnut log sold for $90,000. However, very few trees like these
remain, and as more are harvested, the few remaining will all but disappear.
Dwindling supplies and growing demand have caused the prices of prime
veneer-grade black walnut to climb 1400 percent in 35 years (including
inflation). At the same time the overall quality has declined, and, in fact,
veneer-slicing in today's mills is mostly a salvage operation. As a
consequence, the prices for veneer-grade walnut range from about $3.00 a board
foot on up to about $15.00 for the very best specimens, with most purchases
falling in the $3.00 to $5.00 range.
In the future, plantation-grown black walnut
will supply the bulk of veneer-grade black walnut wood.
Each year thousands of run-of-the-nursery black walnut seedlings are planted in
hopes of reaping great profits down the road. However, on the average, it will
take from 50 to 70 years for these trees to reach harvestable size, and even
then, only about one in ten will be veneer-grade. Conversely, there is little
doubt that plantations of the Successor GST black walnut cultivars are
the best way to meet future demand for veneer-grade black walnut.
According to one buyer, the genetically superior trees, which should fall in
the $6.00 to $8.00 per board foot range, should be worth between about $5,000
and $10,000 in 30 to 35 years. However, it is possible, under optimal
conditions, that some of the trees could be ready for harvest in about 25
years.
Table 1 illustrates the tremendous profit potential in growing the Successor GST
genetically superior black walnut trees.
Table I. ACCUMULATED NET CASH FLOW FROM ONE ACRE PLANTATION
Year
|
Annual Cost of One Acre
|
Accum-
ulated Cost of One Acre
|
Black
Walnut Nut Crop (lbs.)
|
Black
Walnut Nut Income
|
Orna- mental
Tree Crop
|
Orna- mental
Tree Income
|
Successor GST Income
|
Annual Cash Flow
|
Accumulated Cash Flow
|
1
|
$5,575
|
$5,575
|
|
|
|
|
|
($5,575)
|
($5,575)
|
2
|
371
|
5,946
|
|
|
|
|
|
(371)
|
(5,946)
|
3
|
382
|
6,328
|
|
|
|
|
|
(382)
|
(6,328)
|
4
|
393
|
6,721
|
|
|
|
|
|
(393)
|
(6,721)
|
5
|
405
|
7,126
|
280
|
$103
|
56
|
$1,960
|
|
1,658
|
(5,064)
|
6
|
417
|
7,544
|
411
|
151
|
56
|
2,240
|
|
1,973
|
(3,090)
|
7
|
430
|
7,973
|
544
|
200
|
56
|
2,520
|
|
2,290
|
(800)
|
8
|
443
|
8,416
|
675
|
248
|
56
|
2,800
|
|
2,605
|
1,805
|
9
|
456
|
8,872
|
938
|
344
|
|
|
|
(112)
|
1,693
|
10
|
470
|
9,342
|
1,330
|
488
|
|
|
|
18
|
1,711
|
11
|
484
|
9,826
|
1,584
|
581
|
|
|
|
98
|
1,809
|
12
|
498
|
10,324
|
2,096
|
769
|
|
|
|
271
|
2,080
|
13
|
513
|
10,837
|
2,730
|
1,002
|
|
|
|
489
|
2,568
|
14
|
529
|
11,366
|
3,354
|
1,231
|
|
|
|
702
|
3,271
|
15
|
545
|
11,911
|
3,968
|
1,456
|
|
|
|
912
|
4,182
|
16
|
561
|
12,471
|
5,080
|
1,864
|
|
|
|
1,303
|
5,486
|
17
|
578
|
13,049
|
5,670
|
2,081
|
|
|
|
1,503
|
6,989
|
18
|
595
|
13,644
|
6,250
|
2,294
|
|
|
|
1,699
|
8,688
|
19
|
613
|
14,257
|
6,820
|
2,503
|
|
|
|
1,890
|
10,578
|
20
|
631
|
14,888
|
7,380
|
2,708
|
|
|
|
2,077
|
12,655
|
21
|
650
|
15,539
|
7,808
|
2,866
|
|
|
|
2,215
|
14,870
|
22
|
670
|
16,208
|
7,920
|
2,907
|
|
|
|
2,237
|
17,107
|
23
|
690
|
16,898
|
8,092
|
2,970
|
|
|
|
2,280
|
19,387
|
24
|
710
|
17,609
|
8,260
|
3,031
|
|
|
|
2,321
|
21,708
|
25
|
732
|
18,340
|
8,307
|
3,049
|
|
|
|
2,317
|
24,025
|
26
|
754
|
19,094
|
8,424
|
3,092
|
|
|
|
2,338
|
26,363
|
27
|
776
|
19,870
|
8,468
|
3,108
|
|
|
|
2,331
|
28,694
|
28
|
800
|
20,670
|
8,510
|
3,123
|
|
|
|
2,324
|
31,018
|
29
|
824
|
21,494
|
8,400
|
3,083
|
|
|
|
2,259
|
33,277
|
30
|
848
|
22,342
|
8,400
|
3,083
|
|
|
|
2,234
|
35,511
|
31
|
874
|
23,216
|
8,400
|
3,083
|
|
|
|
2,209
|
37,720
|
32
|
900
|
24,116
|
8,400
|
3,083
|
|
|
|
2,183
|
39,903
|
33
|
927
|
25,043
|
8,400
|
3,083
|
|
|
|
2,156
|
42,059
|
34
|
955
|
25,998
|
8,400
|
3,083
|
|
|
|
2,128
|
44,187
|
35
|
983
|
26,981
|
8,400
|
3,083
|
|
|
1,064,000
|
1,066,099
|
1,110,286
|
| TOTAL |
26,981
|
|
173,699
|
63,748
|
224
|
9,520
|
1,064,000
|
|
$1,110,286
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ROI
=
|
4,115%
|
| 1. |
Costs are |
$3,395 |
for one acre of grafts + shelters |
|
|
210 |
for stakes |
|
|
490 |
for planting |
|
|
1,120 |
for 280 ornamentals |
|
|
100 |
for inputs (herbicide, lime, fertilizer, etc.) per year |
|
|
100 |
for land per year |
|
|
160 |
for maintenance (pruning, herbicide, mulch, etc.) per year |
|
|
5,575 |
TOTAL |
|
|
All of which are compounded at 3% per annum. |
| 2. |
Nuts are sold for $.367 per pound. Survival rate for all trees is compounded at 80%. Ornamentals are sold for $35 each in 5th year, $40 each in 6th year, $45 each in 7th year, and $50 each in 8th year. Black walnut grafted trees are sold for $10,000 each less $500 for processing. |
| 3. |
ROI (Return On Investment) = 4,115 percent!
|
NOTE - You are welcome to download {in either STUFFIT format for Macintosh (78 K) or ZipIt format for Windows/DOS (59 K) machines} and use the Microsoft Excel worksheet I created to generate the data in Table 1.
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